4.08.2008

Prophecy

Let's be perfectly honest. Baseball in DC is going to fail. My best guess is that the Nationals move to Portland or Vegas by 2028. Actually, 2028 seems optimistic.

I know the Nationals aren't exactly a great team. And I know that the Marlins are going to be absolutely dreadful. PECOTA has the Nats finishing the year with 73 wins and the Marlins with 71. Games between two bad teams aren't going to sell out.

But to fail to reach 50% of capacity in the second game ever in Nationals Park is astonishing.

Nationals Park capacity: 41,888.
Attendance yesterday: 20,487

This is the second professional game ever in a brand new stadium! The first game, Opening Night, sold out in minutes. You'd think interest would be through the roof.

But the numbers don't lie. People simply do not give a shit. There's no demand here for a baseball team. Just like there was no demand for the Senator teams that moved to Minnesota and Texas.

At least there won't be any scheduling concerns when Pope John Paul IV hosts a Catholic Mass in 2036.

20 comments:

  1. Rusty, however, is trying to singlehandedly increase ticket sales by forcing me to go to the park no less than three times in the next month or so.

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  2. I have been running a number of very advanced simulations on this topic over the weekend. My findings:

    We will sign BJ Upton and Russell Martin over the next two years. Ian Desmond and Esmailyn Gonzalez develop into an elite double-play combo. Wily Mo hits his stride. We trade away Patterson and Johnson for some passable young arms, stockpile more through the draft, and suddenly our rotation is ok.

    THE NATIONALS WIN THE WORLD SERIES EVERY YEAR.

    That is my prophecy.

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  3. Remember when in SimCity you could enter a code for an earthquake or tornado or some other natural disaster that would demolish your town so you could start anew?

    How do we do that here?

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  4. Rusty, you're wrong, because the revenue streams will be good here, certainly better than they'd be in those other mid-sized markets you mentioned. With concessions and seat prices like this, the Lerners are making plenty of cash and won't need or want to move.

    Matthew, at least get your sarcasm right. We won't be trading Patterson for anyone. Would have been funnier if you'd have taken that into account (re-sign, then trade him).

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  5. The real issue last night was the weather. Once it warms up you'll see attendance up a bit.

    This isn't Boston, NY, or Chicago though, so I wouldn't expect sell outs nearly every game.

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  6. We had a higher percentage of attendance on Monday night then EVERY single ballpark that wasnt hosting an opening day game for their team.

    The NCAA championship was on, hence no one in America went to a baseball game. Secondly, it was 20 freaking degrees at the game because of the breeze off of the Anacostia (which will be amazing come July and August).

    I can't wait to see the attendance tonight. I'll be commenting again tomorrow morning. Thanks dickweed...

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  7. This entry is proof that they should have rules on who should be allowed to blog. It's simple...if you hate DC so much...then leave. You're like the foreigners that move here for a better life and then complain about everything American.
    I was born and raised and know first hand DC sports sucks and the fans are weak. With the government here, so many of the DC residents are not from here...and the ones that are, can't afford these jacked up prices for games. As for the Nats 2nd game...it was raining and it was the NCAA finals...take it easy. The Caps and Wiz are selling out every game and are the hardest ticket in town. You're the reason I hate DC.

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  8. "We had a higher percentage of attendance on Monday night then EVERY single ballpark that wasnt hosting an opening day game for their team."

    That is 100% not true. LAnaheim drew 35,000 people. It was not Opening Day for the Angels. Colorado drew about the same rate as DC.

    So, in the three stadiums that didn't had games on Monday that weren't home openers, DC tied for last.

    Even if your assertion were true, then the Nats would have done better than only two other teams. Both teams don't have the luxury of a brand new stadium.

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  9. Check Anaheims attendance in August when it's 130 degrees out, trust me I lived there, there will be around 25,000.

    Again, it was unbearably cold in DC on Monday. It was 78 degrees in Anaheim. I'm not sure your grasping this...

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  10. People attended opening day to be there, not to be there for the team. I was at the very first game played -- the exhibition game the day before opening day -- and everyone was in their seats, but on their Blackberries. They didn't care about the team; they cared about being able to say they were there for the first game.

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  11. I'm going to ask what crack you are smoking if you think that the weather gets above 100 there at any time. It averages 85 throughout August - a couple of degrees lower than DC, with much less humidity.

    As for Anaheim's attendance - they pretty much sell out every game now that they're actually good.

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  12. "As for Anaheim's attendance - they pretty much sell out every game now that they're actually good."

    So you're saying that they didnt sell out games when they sucked. You realize youre going against your own argument here. It's OK for the Angels not to sell out games when they suck, but it's not OK for us?

    It will take awhile for DC people to really bond with this team, but I hope and believe that it is something that does happen, and that's why i'm pulling for us to stay in this town for years to come. That's also why i'm not creating blog sites that completely trash my city and the people in it.

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  13. I'm not going against my argument at all. I personally don't care whether the Nats sell out a game or not, nor have I ever taken a position on it.

    I'm simply pointing out that for somebody who supposedly lived in Anaheim, you really have no idea what's going on over there.

    That said, I agree wholeheartedly that DC was ripped off and played for fools by MLB and the Nats. Public funds should never be used to build stadiums for billionaires.

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  14. Even if people don't show up, the boxes are sold, the seat licenses are paid for, the tickets are bought.

    Quit being a wet blanket looking for any source negativity.

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  15. You're really wrong on this one. Colder temps, national title game helped prevent better attendance on Monday. Washington DC in 2008 is nothing like DC in 1960 and 1971 when it was still a sleepy government town...the population growth in the suburbs has been staggering.

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  16. holy shit so many people have made such a big deal about the attendance. who fucking cares? the nats and mlb are making dickloads of cash from that stadium and its not like the dc is going to get smaller or poorer any time soon. that team isnt going anyway, even tho the team right now is total ass and i hope they lose al their games. get a fucking grip.

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  17. Shit, three quarters of teams in baseball don't sell out when they aren't in the running. When the Nats get better you'll be singing a different tune.

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  18. Simple post but great expression of thoughts.. how do you do that? i think your a veteran blogger! am i right?

    anyway I'm william
    mind if I put a link back to you?


    (clickable) ------> Men Overcoat

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  19. D.C have nice baseball stadium.So i think they will success in the future.

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  20. you are right there's only a few fans in our hometown.

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